MARKET AT 7
Good evening. The Reserve Bank gave Australian borrowers their fourth rate hike of the year today, and the shock didn't stay put — it crossed the Tasman and flattened New Zealand property stocks before the night was out. Add a fresh leg up in oil that dragged Wall Street lower on its way out, and tonight the central-bank story and the market story were basically the same story.
In tonight's newsletter:
RBA hikes cash rate to 4.60%, a 15-year high
Oil tops $108 as Hormuz costs mount, Wall Street sinks
NZX 50 sinks 1.1% as the RBA hike crosses the Tasman
Gold holds near $4,116 as yields, dollar weight
Bitcoin steady near $83,800 in a quiet session
RBA hikes cash rate to 4.60%, a 15-year high
The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate a quarter point to 4.60% on Tuesday, its fourth increase this year and the highest level since November 2011, according to the RBA's own post-meeting statement. The board's decision was unanimous, citing "upside risks to inflation" now materialising from global oil supply disruptions and stronger-than-expected domestic growth and inflation data.
Macquarie Bank said it will pass the full rise on to variable mortgage rates from October; Cotality estimates this year's four hikes have already cut typical borrowing power by roughly $90,000, about a 9% hit, ABC News reports. The Australian dollar spiked to 70.18 US cents on the news before slipping back to 69.93 cents, down 0.3% for the day. Source: RBA media release, 29 Sep 2026 → · Source: ABC News, 29 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
A unanimous vote, and the RBA pointedly didn't rule out a fifth hike. Borrowers shouldn't rule one out either.
Oil tops $108 as Hormuz costs mount, Wall Street sinks
Brent crude settled Monday in New York at $108.50 a barrel, up 4.02%, before easing slightly in Tuesday's Asian trade to $107.37, as the cost of moving oil around the Strait of Hormuz keeps climbing even though the flow itself has partly recovered, oilprice.com and TheStreet report. Shipping tracker Kpler puts Hormuz throughput back near 12.8 million barrels a day, but much of that relies on costlier ship-to-ship transfers and Saudi Arabia's rerouting through Yanbu after Houthi strikes on its East-West pipeline.
Wall Street closed lower Monday on the same story: the Dow fell 0.67%, the S&P 500 0.77% and the Nasdaq 0.92%, with Boeing down 6.2% to a 2026 low after the FAA delayed 737 MAX 10 certification, TheStreet reports. Source: oilprice.com, 29 Sep 2026 → · Source: TheStreet, 28 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
The strait's open wide enough to keep oil flowing and narrow enough to keep everyone paying extra for it.
NZX 50 sinks 1.1% as the RBA hike crosses the Tasman
New Zealand's benchmark index fell 147.05 points, or 1.1%, to 13,683.63 on Tuesday as rising bond yields and the RBA's rate rise pushed rate-sensitive stocks lower, thebottomline.co.nz reports. Property and software names led the falls: Ryman Healthcare dropped to a 16-year low, down 3.1%, while Serko, Vista Group and Summerset each fell by more than 3%.
"Yields are higher and interest rates are higher, and that's negative for the property market," one investment adviser said. Hallenstein Glasson was the rare winner, jumping 5.7% to a record $14 after full-year net profit rose 49.9% to $59.2 million. Source: thebottomline.co.nz, 29 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
A rate call on one side of the Tasman just flattened property stocks on the other. That's how tied together these two markets really are.
Gold holds near $4,116 as yields, dollar weight
Spot gold traded near $4,116 an ounce Tuesday, edging higher after Monday's sharp selloff but still well off its recent highs, as rising Treasury yields and a firmer US dollar make the metal less attractive to hold, Markets.com reports.
The same Middle East tension pushing oil higher is complicating gold's usual safe-haven role rather than reinforcing it, with traders now watching this week's US economic data for the next steer on Federal Reserve policy. Source: Markets.com, 29 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Safe haven, or yield-sensitive trade. Gold still can't decide which one it wants to be this month.
Bitcoin steady near $83,800 in a quiet session
Bitcoin traded around $83,844, up 0.79% over 24 hours, CoinDesk data shows, holding in the same band it's occupied since sliding out of last week's failed run at $87,000. Trading volume sat near $16.4 billion, well down on the near-$1 billion single-day ETF inflow days seen earlier in September. Source: CoinDesk, 29 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Nothing dramatic to report. Bitcoin's just resting.
QUICK HITS
Codan surges 18.85% to record high on drone-parts demand. Codan shares jumped 18.85% to a record $61.79 after the Adelaide-based radio and metal-detection maker lifted its half-year profit guidance to at least $160 million, more than double last year's $71.2 million, on booming demand for radio-frequency components from drone makers supplying conflict zones including Ukraine and the Middle East, investing.com reports. Our take: a company built partly on parts for other people's drones is an uncomfortable reminder of what's actually driving some of the ASX's best days.
Boeing falls to a 2026 low on FAA certification delay. Boeing shares fell 6.2% Monday after the FAA delayed certification of its 737 MAX 10 over software concerns, dragging the stock to its lowest level this year, TheStreet reports. Our take: a regulator saying “not yet” sinks a stock faster than anything else.
Samsung's $1bn AI bet stands out in a weak Asian session. The Nikkei fell 0.6% to 65,481.22 and the Kospi 0.27% to 6,870.82 on Tuesday, but Samsung Electronics rose 0.93% after joining KKR, Nvidia and Vistra in a $1 billion investment in AI data-centre and power infrastructure, TradingKey reports. Our take: even in a red session, money still chases anything labelled AI infrastructure.
Those are your 5 minutes for tonight; see you at the same time tomorrow. - Miko Santos