MARKET AT 7
Good Morning.
The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.85% on Tuesday in a 6-3 vote, its fifth rise this year.
Brent oil fell about 8% on Monday to near US$104 a barrel on hopes of an Iran deal.
Singapore police warn that fake "work files" on WhatsApp can install spying software.
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MARKET AT 7
RBA lifts cash rate to 4.85% in a split 6-3 vote Alternative: Fifth RBA rise this year splits the board; oil falls 8%
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RBA lifts cash rate to 4.85% in split vote, fifth rise of 2026
The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.85% on Tuesday, with six board members voting to lift and three to hold.
The bank says inflation "remains elevated" and will stay above 3% for the coming year. It does not expect inflation to fall to 3%, the top of its target range, until late 2027, about three quarters later than it forecast before.
UBS called the statement "clearly dovish", and the three-year bond yield (what the government pays to borrow) fell about 0.08 points. On a variable loan, your lender decides when to pass the rise on. Macquarie says 19 November.
Our take: Three of nine members wanted to hold, so the board is not sure of itself. Forecasters range from one more rise in February to cuts during 2027.
Money Moves
Brent oil drops about 8% on Iran deal hopes. Brent fell to near US$104.10 a barrel in late Monday trading, Gulf News reports. That is intraday, not a settlement [need to confirm: Monday's settlement]. Weekend Iran-Qatar talks produced a draft plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Source: Gulf News, 03/11/2026 → · Source: Michael West Media, 03/11/2026 →
Macquarie passes on the RBA rise from 19 November. The bank will lift its variable home loan rates by 0.25% a year, and its savings and transaction accounts rise by the same amount. The big four had not confirmed theirs. Our take: A rate rise lands on a date. Find yours. Source: Macquarie Bank, 03/11/2026 →
David Jones misses the deadline to file its accounts, ABC reports. The ABC says the department store missed its deadline with ASIC (the corporate regulator). Lender Hilco says it remains supportive and "any inference otherwise is false". Reports of store closures are unconfirmed. Our take: Nobody has confirmed the closures, so I will not guess. Source: ABC News, 03/11/2026 →
Scam Watch
Singapore police warn of WhatsApp files that look like work documents from someone you know. Scammers take over a friend's or colleague's account, then send files named like "Invoice 2026-09-15.iso" or "Salary Revision.rar" and ask you to open them on a computer.
Police say the files can install malware that records keystrokes and takes screenshots. They have no reports of money lost from this version yet, but some hijacked accounts have asked contacts for cash.
The giveaway is a work file you did not expect, even from a name you trust.
Don't open it. Check with the sender by phone. If you did open one, tell your bank straight away. In Australia, report scams to Scamwatch.
Region Radar
New Zealand: Consumers expect house prices to rise just 2% over the next year, the weakest reading since July 2023, the ANZ-Roy Morgan survey shows. Pacific: Fijian Holdings' assets passed FJ$1 billion for the first time, and pre-tax profit rose 11% to FJ$67 million, PACNEWS reports. Southeast Asia: Economists polled by the Manila Times expect Philippine inflation of about 7.7% for October, up from 7.2%. The official figure is due Thursday.
Source: NZ Adviser, 02/11/2026 → · Source: PACNEWS, 02/11/2026 → · Source: The Manila Times, 02/11/2026 →
Do this today
Open WhatsApp, go to Settings, then Linked Devices, and log out anything you don't recognise. Then switch on two-step verification. It takes about three minutes.
Today’s calendar
Wednesday 4/11, 8:15am Adelaide time: New Zealand's September-quarter unemployment rate. Economists pick 5.4% to 5.6%.
Wednesday 4/11: US midterm election results start arriving.
Back tomorrow with the RBA's answer. — Miko Santos