MARKET AT 7
Good evening. Oil and gold are having a main-character moment as the US-Iran standoff drags on; the RBA played it safe, and Alphabet found out investors don't love a $200 billion invoice. Here's everything that moved your money today and what it means for you:
In tonight's newsletter:
Oil and gold surge as the US-Iran standoff drags on
RBA holds the line at 4.35%
Wall Street slips as Alphabet's AI spending spree spooks investors
CoreWeave and Super Micro rip higher on AI earnings beats
Bitcoin dips below $64K ahead of today's inflation report
1.
Oil and gold surge as the US-Iran standoff drags on
Brent crude jumped 5.7% to $92.54 a barrel, and WTI hit $83.39, as the US and Iran dug further into their standoff over the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump said Washington is "only semi-negotiating" with Tehran, while Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi ruled out talks without compensation for alleged breaches of a June agreement. Gold rode the same fear trade to $4,445 an ounce, up 9.8% for the week and over 31% for the year.Source: Yahoo Finance, 11 Aug 2026 → · Yahoo Finance, 11 Aug 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Oil and gold rallying together says this market isn't expecting a quick resolution. Every extra dollar on a barrel eventually turns up at the bowser and on your grocery bill.
2.
RBA holds the line at 4.35%
The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.35% for a second straight meeting — the highest level since November 2023 — as it waits for inflation to settle back into target.
It's the call most economists expected: a hold, not a hike. Markets remain split on whether a cut lands before Christmas. Source: Forbes Australia, 11 Aug 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
A hold isn't flashy, but it's a message: the RBA reckons the economy can handle the pressure a little longer. If you're paying off a mortgage, "no change" is genuinely the best outcome this meeting could have delivered – the alternative was a hike.
3.
Wall Street slips as Alphabet's AI spending spree spooks investors
US stocks slipped Tuesday: the Dow fell 184 points (-0.34%) to 53,791.85, the S&P 500 dropped 0.32% to 7,728.20, and the Nasdaq lost 0.60% to 26,445.45, weighed down by oil prices and a rough day for Alphabet.
Google's parent fell 3.6% after confirming it's raising 2026 AI spending to as much as $205 billion, on top of a fresh $25 billion debt raise and reports of leadership churn in its AI unit. Revenue is still up 23% year-on-year, but investors are nervous about how much cash Big Tech is burning on AI. Source: The Motley Fool, 11 Aug 2026 → · TradingKey, 11 Aug 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Shrugging off a rate call that could've gone either way tells you Alphabet isn't in trouble — it's spending like a company terrified of losing the AI race, and Wall Street is asking whether that fear is worth $200 billion.
4.
CoreWeave, Super Micro jump on earnings beat
CoreWeave posted second-quarter revenue of $2.58 billion, up 113% year-on-year and ahead of forecasts, sending its stock up 11% in after-hours trading.
Losses widened to $626 million, mostly due to interest costs after taking on over $10 billion in new debt to fund data centres. CEO Michael Intrator said the company had "reached an important inflection point this quarter". Super Micro Computer shares also jumped on the same AI demand story. Source: Yahoo Finance, 11 Aug 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Doubling revenue while losses widen sounds contradictory, but that's the AI infrastructure playbook right now: borrow big, build fast, worry about the balance sheet later. The real test comes if AI demand cools before that debt does.
5.
Bitcoin falls ahead of US inflation report
Bitcoin slid as low as $63,913 before edging back to around $64,280, down roughly 1.4% on the day, as crypto traders braced for fresh US inflation data.
Ethereum fell about 2% to near $1,889. The next Consumer Price Index report — covering July — is due at 8.30am US Eastern time today (about 10pm here in Adelaide) and will shape whether the Fed leans towards cutting or holding at its September meeting. Source: Yahoo Finance, 11 Aug 2026 → · US Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule →
OUR TAKE:
Crypto trades like a rate bet wearing a currency costume these days. Watch tonight's number: a hot inflation read makes a September rate cut less likely, and that's historically not been kind to bitcoin.
QUICK HITS
RBNZ raises rate to 2.50%, signals more hikes. New Zealand's central bank raised its Official Cash Rate to 2.50% on 8 July, with committee members saying that "further OCR increases appear likely at upcoming meetings." The next review lands 2 September. Our take: the RBNZ has already raised rates once — if you're on a floating mortgage rate across the ditch, expect another hike before Christmas. Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 8 Jul 2026 →
Fiji reserves hold steady despite $2 billion drug bust. Fiji's central bank governor Ariff Ali says a recent $2 billion drug seizure "did not mean the same amount of money left the country", with reserves steady near $3.8–3.9 billion — while Fiji's tax office says Pacific nations are losing roughly $4 billion regionally in unclaimed tax from platforms like Netflix, Amazon and Airbnb. Our take: that $4 billion tax gap is the real story – money Pacific governments could spend on hospitals and roads instead of chasing offshore platforms for it. Source: Islands Business, 11 Aug 2026 →
Upwork shares fall 15% on weak earnings. Shares in freelance platform Upwork dropped almost 15% to $8.36 after disappointing earnings. Our take: gig platforms are a decent bellwether for freelance demand, and a 15% drop on one miss isn't a great signal if you pick up freelance work on the side. Source: The Motley Fool, 11 Aug 2026 →
Those are your 5 minutes for tonight; see you at the same time tomorrow. - Miko