MARKET AT 7
Good evening, everyone. Since this is Market at 7's first proper issue, I will introduce myself. I'm Miko Santos, founder of Kangaroofern Media Lab. My background spans print and radio journalism, plus a stretch in banking and fraud detection. Every evening, I'll break down the day's biggest markets and economy stories and what they could mean for your money.
In tonight's newsletter:
RBA holds the cash rate at 4.35%
Fed holds too, but three officials wanted a hike
ASX 200 closes up on energy stocks
S&P 500 slips on Intel's $15bn share sale
Oil and gold both climb on the Hormuz standoff
Now, here's what moved money today — with a bit more of the "why it matters" behind each one.
1.
RBA holds the cash rate at 4.35% and keeps the door open to more hikes
The Reserve Bank left its cash rate unchanged at today's meeting, a unanimous call the board made after markets had already priced it at a 97% probability going in. It doesn't expect inflation to return to its target midpoint until late 2027 and said it's still willing to raise rates further "if upside risks materialise".
Why it matters: mortgage repayments remain unchanged this month, but the RBA might hike rates later this year if prices stop cooling. Source: InvestingLive, 11 Aug 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
After a long run of rate rises, a hold feels like relief. But "still too high" from the bank is not the same as "job done"—if you're banking on repayments easing soon, you could be waiting well into next year.
2.
Fed holds rates at 3.5%–3.75%, but three officials wanted a hike instead
The Federal Reserve kept its target range unchanged at its 29 July meeting, but the vote wasn't unanimous. Three of its own rate-setters, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan, pushed to lift rates a quarter point instead, judging inflation still too hot, marking the most hawkish FOMC vote split in close to a decade.
Our take: when three of your own colleagues think you're going too easy on inflation, that's not background noise; that's a real fight over whether the world's biggest economy still needs cooling down. Its next call lands 16 September. Source: Federal Reserve, 29 Jul 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
When three of your own colleagues think you're going too easy on inflation, that's not background noise;noise; that's a real fight over whether the world's biggest economy still needs cooling down. Its next call lands 16 September.
3.
ASX 200 closes up 0.2% at 9,250.6; energy stocks lead
Australia's benchmark index opened 0.13% higher at 9,244 points, reversing an earlier forecast for a small decline as strength in commodities took over, then held those gains to close at 9,250.6. Energy was the standout sector, up 2.9%, with Santos (+3.7%), Woodside (+2.6%) and Karoon Energy (+5.7%) all rallying on firmer oil prices. Real estate lagged, down 0.9%, as investors weighed what a longer stretch of high rates means for property valuations.Source: Capital Brief, 11 Aug 2026 → · IBTimes Australia, 11 Aug 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Shrugging off a rate call that could've gone either way tells you the market's more relaxed about rates than the commentary suggests. But energy doing the heavy lifting is really a bet that oil stays high, not that the economy's firing.
4.
S&P 500 slips as Intel's $15 billion share sale drags tech lower
Wall Street's benchmark closed 4.53 points lower at 7,753.11 on Monday, a small headline move that masked a rougher day underneath for big tech. Intel fell 4% after announcing a proposed $15 billion stock offering to fund AI chip production and packaging, dragging Nvidia down roughly 3% and Apple down 1.5% alongside it. Source: BBN Times, 10 Aug 2026 →
5.
Oil and gold both climb as the Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz drags on
Brent crude rose about 1% to $84.42 a barrel after Iran's foreign minister said Tehran wasn't in direct talks with the US to resolve the standoff, even though both sides had appeared close to a deal earlier this month. Gold pushed above $4,430 an ounce on the same safe-haven demand, plus weak US jobs data and steady central bank buying. Source: BBN Times, 10 Aug 2026 → · Markets.com, 11 Aug 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Oil and gold are pricing in the same fear right now that the situation doesn't get resolved soon. That's not just a chart on a trading screen; it flows through to petrol prices and grocery bills everywhere, including here.
QUICK HITS
The Aussie dollar barely moved after the RBA's hold, sitting near 0.7050, since the no-change call was already priced in. Our take: no real signal here, just a market that already knew what was coming. Source: FXStreet, 11 Aug 2026 →
Westpac flagged a roughly 20% drop in average monthly mortgage applications and warned investor housing credit growth could halve over the next year, a sign higher-for-longer rates are starting to bite. Our take: this is what a hold-not-cut cycle actually looks like on the ground, borrowers pulling back before the market forces them to. Source: Kalkine, 10 Aug 2026 →
June-quarter inflation cooled more than forecast, with headline CPI at 3.8% and trimmed mean at 3.6%, both below expectations, part of why markets weren't betting on a hike today. Our take: it's the number the RBA wants to see, but one good quarter doesn't undo the "still too high" verdict above; they'll want a repeat before they relax. Source: Kalkine, 10 Aug 2026 →
That's your 5 minutes for tonight; see you same time tomorrow. - Miko