MARKET AT 7
Good evening. Markets picked sides today: oil climbed because the ceasefire everyone half-expected didn't land, while gold slid on the Fed's refusal to stop talking about more hikes. Closer to home, tomorrow's Reserve Bank decision looks close to a lock, and one of Australia's biggest gold miners just knocked back a $38.7 billion offer without much hesitation.
In tonight's newsletter:
Oil jumps as US-Iran Hormuz talks reach stalemate
RBA locked in for Tuesday hike, say all 29 economists surveyed
Northern Star rejects $38.7bn Gold Fields takeover bid
Gold slides as Fed officials talk up more hikes
Bitcoin slips below $84,000 as ETF inflows cool
Oil jumps as US-Iran Hormuz talks reach stalemate
Brent crude rose 2.6% to $107.04 a barrel, and WTI gained 2% to $94.22 on Monday, The National reports, after Trump's weekend rejection of Iran's seven-day Hormuz plan hardened into a standoff.
"They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make," Trump told Axios. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Tehran is "ready for diplomacy" and "ready for war at the same time."
Analysts told The National the market is pricing a prolonged stalemate, not a fresh supply shock, helped by Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline reopening. US stock futures slipped about 0.2% pre-market as the standoff weighed on sentiment ahead of Wall Street's open, Vantage Markets reports. Source: The National, 28 Sep 2026 → · Source: Vantage Markets, 28 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
A pipeline back online and a stalemate instead of a deal is the least-bad outcome markets could get tonight, not a good one.
RBA locked in for Tuesday hike, say all 29 economists surveyed
All 29 economists Bloomberg surveyed, including Australia's four major banks, expect the Reserve Bank to lift the cash rate a quarter point to 4.60% at Tuesday's meeting, its highest since November 2011, ABC News reports. Money markets price a 90% probability. AMP's Shane Oliver reckons "a second hike, let alone a third, will not be necessary," while ANZ alone still pencils in a follow-up rise in November.
On a $600,000 mortgage, Tuesday's move alone adds about $91 a month; this year's full run of hikes adds roughly $456. The RBA's cash rate is 4.35%, unchanged since 12 August. Source: ABC News, 28 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
We won't guess whether Tuesday is the Reserve Bank's last word this year. Even the four banks calling the hike can't agree on that part.
Northern Star rejects $38.7bn Gold Fields takeover bid
Northern Star Resources on Monday knocked back an unsolicited $38.7 billion takeover proposal from South Africa's Gold Fields, worth $27.00 a share, a 22% premium, in shares and cash, Market Index reports. The board's concern: shareholders would end up overexposed to Gold Fields stock, carrying "higher jurisdictional risk". Elliott Investment Management, holding a 6.2% stake, said the approach still shows "others clearly see value here too." Northern Star shares jumped 6.4%. The ASX 200 closed up 0.17% to 8,679.70, with healthcare and financials each adding more than 1%, while a materials sell-off dragged the other way. Source: Market Index, 28 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Getting turned down for being too cheap and not too risky is the kind of rejection that usually means a higher number is coming.
Gold slides as Fed officials talk up more hikes
Spot gold fell more than 1% to around $4,210 an ounce in early Asian trade Monday, its lowest in over a week, as hawkish Federal Reserve comments pushed the US dollar higher, FXStreet reports. Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack said inflation risks "remain high"; Governor Michael Barr said "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed". OCBC now puts October Fed hike odds above 70%. Source: FXStreet, 28 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
War risk and rate bets pushed gold higher a month ago. Tonight the same two forces are pushing it down instead.
Bitcoin slips below $84,000 as ETF inflows cool
Bitcoin fell about 1.6% to roughly $83,200 Monday, extending a pullback from a failed run at $87,000 earlier this month, CryptoTimes reports. Friday's spot Bitcoin ETF inflows slowed to $134.5 million, a fraction of the near-$1 billion days seen earlier in September. Bitcoin sits roughly 34% below its October 2025 record near $126,080. Source: CryptoTimes, 28 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Not every dip needs a theory. Sometimes a market that ran hard just wants a quiet week, and this reads like one.
QUICK HITS
NZX 50 opens the week up 0.4% in an evenly split session. New Zealand's benchmark rose 0.4% Monday in a session split 41 gainers to 41 decliners, Interest.co.nz reports. Fisher & Paykel Healthcare led, up 2% and extending its one-year gain to 25%; Gentrack was weakest, down 3% and off 62% over the year. Our take: forty-one up, forty-one down, not really a story either way.
Kospi falls 2.7% as foreign investors dump chip stocks. South Korea's Kospi closed down 2.7% to 6,889.74, its steepest fall in a four-session winning streak, as foreign investors sold a net 3.2 trillion won of shares and Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each fell more than 5%, ibtimes.com.au reports. A local researcher cited concerns about further Fed hikes and Middle East tensions. Our take: two stocks driving a whole index lower is a reminder of how concentrated these cap-weighted benchmarks really are.
Karoon Energy shares sink on Brazil pump fault, guidance cut. Karoon Energy shares fell as much as 12.6% Monday after the ASX energy producer cut 2026 production guidance for its Brazilian Bauna project from 6.0–6.7 million barrels to 5.4–5.7 million, following an electrical fault in a subsea pump cable, Rask Media reports. About 3,500 barrels a day will be deferred until the cable is replaced. Our take: one faulty cable trimming 700,000 barrels of guidance says offshore oil runs on hardware, not optimism.
Those are your 5 minutes for tonight; see you at the same time tomorrow. - Miko Santos