Good evening. Cooler-than-expected US inflation did a lot of work today — it lifted Wall Street to record highs and gave gold and the Aussie dollar a reason to move. Meanwhile, the RBA and RBNZ landed on opposite sides of the rates table in the same week, a sign of how differently the two economies are running.

The Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% year-on-year in July, down from 3.5% in June, with the monthly print up just 0.1%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Core inflation sat at 2.5% annually. The S&P 500 closed up 0.26% at 7,749 and the Nasdaq gained 0.54% to 26,588, both within reach of record territory, while the Dow slipped 0.04% to 53,770. Producer prices and fresh jobless claims figures were both due out later Thursday US time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 13 Aug 2026 → · Source: TheStreet, 12 Aug 2026

A soft CPI print is relief, not victory — shelter and food costs are still running hot, and one good month doesn't erase a year of "higher for longer".

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Brent crude sat at $87.92 a barrel and US WTI at $82.11 on Thursday, both down slightly but still elevated after last week's jump on Strait of Hormuz tensions. Trump said the US had "total control" of the waterway as Washington leans on sanctions and a naval blockade rather than further strikes. The IEA's latest report flagged a 1.8 million barrel-a-day shortfall this quarter if the standoff drags on. Gold pushed above $4,400 an ounce, helped by the softer inflation read. Source: TradingEconomics, 13 Aug 2026 → · Source: Markets.com, 13 Aug 2026 →

Oil and gold rallying together used to mean fear. Now it's fear plus a real supply problem — worse for anyone filling up a car or paying a grocery bill.

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Server maker Super Micro Computer and cloud firm CoreWeave both jumped 19% Wednesday after quarterly results beat expectations on continued AI infrastructure demand. Optical networking supplier Lumentum Holdings rose 14% on the same theme. The moves came even as some of the biggest AI names had a rougher run earlier in the week, amid questions about how quickly that spending pays off. Source: The Motley Fool, 12 Aug 2026 →

The AI trade keeps finding new winners further down the supply chain — usually a sign the boom still has legs, not that it's running out of road.

The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, a unanimous call after three hikes this year, and signalled it would not hesitate to move again if inflation does not keep cooling. The ASX 200 fell for a third straight session as reporting season produced mixed results: Insurance Australia Group tumbled 5.4% on weaker cash earnings and Commonwealth Bank lost around 2%, while ANZ climbed 2.9% on a stronger result. The Aussie dollar slipped 0.17% to around US$0.705, off a two-month high near 0.709. Source: Forbes Australia, 13 Aug 2026 → · Source: IBTimes Australia, 13 Aug 2026

A central bank that says it "won't hesitate" to hike again isn't done — Australians budgeting for lower rates soon should budget for a longer wait instead.is still active

The RBNZ cut its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%, a three-year low, after a split 4-2 vote in which a bigger 50-point cut was seriously considered. The bank said Q2 economic activity was weaker than expected, with households and businesses remaining cautious amid rising prices and a soft labour market. It left the door open to further cuts, with projections pointing to a floor near 2.5%. Source: RNZ, 13 Aug 2026 →

Same region, opposite problem — Australia is still fighting inflation while New Zealand is fighting stagnation, and that gap only widens if both banks stay their current course.

Those are your 5 minutes for tonight; see you at the same time tomorrow. - Miko