Good evening. Tonight’s issue runs on a weekend of big claims about ending two wars and a market mostly just watching oil. Donald Trump says he’s brokered a halt to energy-site strikes between Russia and Ukraine; Ukraine says that’s news to it. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is dealing with its third Houthi missile attack on its main airport in a week, the deadliest yet.

Saudi aviation authorities say Saturday’s Houthi missile strike on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport killed at least 12 people, including four Saudi nationals, two Bangladeshi nationals and victims from six other countries, and wounded more than 300, Al Jazeera reports. It was the third Houthi attack on the airport in a week, after a Thursday strike killed at least three. The Saudi-led coalition called it a “full-fledged war crime”; Donald Trump called it “terrible” and said he’s weighing whether the US should join the fight against the Houthis.

That escalation landed hours before Trump posted on Truth Social that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire”: “Effective immediately... Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” He gave no further detail, Time and Axios report.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the announcement “was news for me,” though he’d accept a genuine halt if Russian strikes on Ukraine’s grid actually stopped. Trump made a near-identical, equally unconfirmed claim in September that both sides ignored within days.

The announcement follows Friday’s separate US move easing sanctions on Russian diesel exports, which Zelensky called “weak” and which seven US senators have asked Trump to reverse. Oil spiked toward $106 a barrel on the weekend’s news before easing back to around $104, as traders decided neither claim changes where crude actually comes from.

Source: Al Jazeera, 10 Oct 2026 → · Source: Time, 11 Oct 2026 → · Source: Axios, 11 Oct 2026 →

ASX 200 nears a one-month high as miners and banks rally. Australia’s benchmark added about 0.7% to close near 8,770 points on Monday, within sight of its best level in a month, as Resources and Banks each gained around 1.5%, BHP rose about 2.5% on firmer copper, and healthcare hit an eight-month high, Market Index and Trading Economics report.

Source: Market Index, 12 Oct 2026 → · Source: Trading Economics, 12 Oct 2026 →

Gold eases, oil swings as traders brace for Wednesday’s US inflation data. Spot gold slipped about 0.1% to roughly $4,190 an ounce and Brent crude fell 0.8% to $103.95 a barrel, both pulling back from the weekend’s spikes, while bitcoin held near $84,000, up about 0.4%, Stockopedia reports. Analysts at HDFC Sky say the bigger threat to oil supply is fewer tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz than either weekend’s headlines.

Source: Stockopedia, 12 Oct 2026 → · Source: HDFC Sky, 12 Oct 2026 →

Wall Street futures point to a higher Columbus Day open. US stock exchanges trade as normal through the Columbus Day holiday, even though bond markets are shut, and futures tied to the S&P 500 were pointing about 0.3% higher Monday, building on Friday’s close at 7,811.54, Stockopedia reports. That’s a pre-market read; the actual open was still hours away when this was written.

Source: Stockopedia, 12 Oct 2026 →

Notice what actually moved oil this weekend, and what didn’t. Trump announced ceasefires in two separate wars within about 48 hours, and crude barely held the gains from either one. The real supply risk, per Texas Tech energy economist Michael Noel, is tankers avoiding the Strait of Hormuz — that doesn’t care what gets posted on Truth Social.

That gap between announcement and effect is becoming the pattern here. Zelensky now responds to Trump’s ceasefire claims the way you’d respond to a colleague announcing your own plans back to you in a meeting: mild surprise, then a polite correction. Markets picked up the same lesson faster than the diplomats did. The ASX didn’t need a ceasefire to climb toward a one-month high. It just needed banks and miners to keep doing what they already do.