MARKET AT 7
Good Morning. The US central bank held rates overnight, but two members wanted a hike. Australian bank shares rallied, while the Reserve Bank will decide on Tuesday.
The US Federal Reserve held rates overnight, but two members voted to raise them.
Firmus's scrapped float leaves up to US$550 million of chip pre-payments due by December.
Warrnambool police say bank-impersonation scams cost four locals about $600,000.
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MARKET AT 7
Fed holds rates as two members vote to hike
💹 Market Closed
Fed holds at 3.75% to 4% as two members push for a hike
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, but two of the members voting wanted to raise it.
The vote was 10 to 2. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented (voted no), and traders now put about 80% odds on a hike at the 8–9 December meeting, the ABC reports.
The ASX financials index rose 1.86%. The date to circle for your mortgage is Tuesday, when the RBA decides with its cash rate (the benchmark behind home-loan rates) at 4.60%.
Our take: Two dissents, both wanting a hike, plus an 80% December price. On that evidence, the Fed's next move is more likely to be up than down.
Money Moves
Firmus's scrapped float leaves chip bills due by December. Firmus pulled its float in early October and has committed to US$8.3 billion of AI chips for a project in Batam, Indonesia, with up to US$550 million in pre-payments due by December, the ABC reports. The company had hoped for a US$44 billion valuation on revenue of about US$50.8 million, and ASIC is looking into what went wrong. Our take: That valuation always looked like a stretch. Source: ABC News, 29/10/2026 →
Microsoft's cloud growth lifts shares about 4% in Wednesday after-hours trading. Azure, its cloud business, earned US$33.17 billion, up more than 48%, and total revenue hit US$92.28 billion, both above targets, SiliconANGLE reports. Our take: One quarter doesn't settle whether AI spending pays off. Source: SiliconANGLE, 28/10/2026 →
JB Hi-Fi's sales slip 0.4% as retail shares fall. First-quarter total sales growth was minus 0.4%, and cyclical stocks (shares that move with spending) fell about 2% after soft updates from Wesfarmers, JB Hi-Fi and Super Retail. Source: ABC News, 29/10/2026 → · Source: CommBank newsroom, 29/10/2026 →
Scam Watch
Warrnambool police say they learned in the past week of four local victims of similar scams, with about $600,000 lost in all. Detective Sergeant Derek Verity says one woman got an email claiming her account at a major bank had been compromised, with a number to call.
Police say she followed the instructions of the person who answered and made four transfers totalling $270,000. Police believe the money went to an Australian account and was reportedly sent overseas, and Verity says there is "zero chance of those funds being recovered."
Police say banks do not contact customers by email, so treat any such email with high suspicion. Report scams to Crime Stoppers on 1800 333 000 or Scamwatch.
Region Radar
New Zealand: ANZ business confidence rose to 52.5 in October, and pricing intentions hit their highest since May. Pacific: The Green Climate Fund approved a US$250 million grant for a climate programme across 14 Pacific countries, PACNEWS reports. Southeast Asia: Indonesia's stock exchange will drop heavily concentrated stocks from its main index from 2 November, Reuters reports.
Source: ActionForex, 29/10/2026 → · Source: PACNEWS, 29/10/2026 → · Source: Reuters via KFGO, 26/10/2026 →
Do this today
Save your bank's real number in your phone. Copy it from the back of your card, name it "Bank (real)", and ring only that number if a message claims a problem.
Today’s calendar
Friday 30/10: Bank of Japan rate decision. The rate is 1.25% and a hold is expected [need to confirm: Adelaide time].
Tuesday 3/11 (Melbourne Cup Day): RBA decision, cash rate now 4.60%
Those are your five minutes for tonight; see you at the same time tomorrow. — Miko Santos