MARKET AT 7
Good evening. Tonight comes down to one number: the US 10-year Treasury yield, which just touched its highest level since 2007 and dragged share markets down on both sides of the Pacific. Trump and Xi sit down in Washington today too, though nobody's promising much will come of it.
In tonight's newsletter:
Bond yields hit 19-year high, drag Wall Street and ASX lower
Australian unemployment hits 4.6%, a post-COVID high
Trump and Xi meet at the White House today on trade, Taiwan, AI
Oil holds near $103 as White House denies diesel export ban plan
Bitcoin slips to $84,000 as bond selloff spreads to crypto
Bond yields hit 19-year high, drag Wall Street and ASX lower
The US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.11% on Wednesday, its highest since 2007, after a hot business-activity reading revived fears the Fed isn't done raising, Yahoo Finance reports. S&P Global's flash PMI jumped to 58.4 from 56.0, and Fed governor Michael Barr said "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed." Traders now price roughly 70% odds of a second hike on 27-28 October, on top of the one delivered this month, the Fed's first since 2023. Wall Street fell: the Dow closed down 0.68% to 51,511.59, the S&P 500 lost 0.75%, the Nasdaq 1.13%, Vantage Markets reports. The selloff reached Australia Thursday, with the ASX 200 down 0.88% to 8,688 points, its worst session since June, and local 10-year yields up at 5.39%, Trading Economics and ABC News report. Source: Yahoo Finance, 23 Sep 2026 → · Source: Vantage Markets, 24 Sep 2026 → · Source: Trading Economics, 24 Sep 2026 → · Source: ABC News, 24 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Higher-for-longer has stopped sounding like a talking point and started looking like the actual forecast.
Australian unemployment hits 4.6%, a post-COVID high
Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August, up from 4.5% and the highest since the pandemic, the ABS reported Thursday. The rise came entirely from part-time work, up 45,800, while full-time jobs fell 6,300, ABC News reports. Governor Michele Bullock has said unemployment "between 4.5 and 5 per cent would take enough heat out of the labour market," and all four major banks still expect the RBA to lift the cash rate to 4.60% at next Tuesday's meeting. That decision is five days off; tonight's news is the data feeding into it, not the rate move itself. Source: ABS, 24 Sep 2026 → · Source: Financial Register, 24 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Bullock all but said she wanted the labour market to cool exactly this much. She got her wish a week before the board meets.
Trump and Xi meet at the White House today on trade, Taiwan, AI
Xi Jinping arrived in Washington ahead of today's White House meeting with Trump, their first sit-down since the trade relationship soured again this year, the AP and Yahoo Finance report. Tariffs, Taiwan and AI policy top the agenda; Trump told reporters, "we get along well, we're doing very well with China," while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer urged him to "draw a hard line" on export controls. Officials are playing down the odds of a major breakthrough, and Xi's delegation is said to be smaller than first planned. No outcome had landed as this newsletter went to print. Source: AP via WDBJ7, 23 Sep 2026 → · Source: Yahoo Finance, 23 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Low expectations going into a summit like this are usually set on purpose, well before either leader lands.
Oil holds near $103 as White House denies diesel export ban plan
Brent crude traded around US$102.58 a barrel Thursday after Politico reported the Trump administration was preparing a 90-day ban on US diesel exports to cut pump prices, Benzinga and the Daily Hodl report. The White House called the report "fake news"; Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the real plan is "the most efficient way to get more diesel into the United States," warning an actual ban would push up petrol and jet fuel prices instead. US diesel has more than doubled in a year, from US$3.69 a gallon to US$6.52, and futures fell 7% on the speculation alone before the denial landed. Source: Daily Hodl, 24 Sep 2026 → · Source: Benzinga, 24 Sep 2026 → · Source: ABC News, 24 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
A White House denial a day after multiple outlets report the story doesn't mean the story was wrong. It means nobody in Washington is ready to own it yet.
Bitcoin slips to $84,000 as bond selloff spreads to crypto
Bitcoin traded at US$84,076 early Thursday US time, down 2.75% over 24 hours, as this week's bond selloff spilled into crypto too, CoinDesk pricing shows. It's a round-the-clock market, so the figure has likely moved again by the time you read this. Source: CoinDesk, 24 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
This is just bitcoin moving with everything else this week. Nothing crypto-specific is driving it.
QUICK HITS
BHP halts Escondida mine after second fatal accident in a year. A worker died Wednesday during maintenance at BHP's Escondida copper mine in Chile, and BHP suspended all activity there, Mining.com reports. It's the second death in the same zone in twelve months; after the first, in October 2025, operations continued as normal. Our take: two deaths in one spot in a year is a pattern, and Chile's regulator now has to say so officially.
NZX 50 dips 0.1%, still up 1.6% over the past week. New Zealand's benchmark eased slightly Wednesday as Investore Property and Napier Port rose 3% each, while Gentrack extended its slide to 8% over five sessions, interest.co.nz reports. Our take: a flat day after a strong week is nothing to read into.
US 30-year mortgage rate hits 7.12%, a two-year high. The average American home loan rate climbed alongside the bond selloff, even as builder KB Home beat earnings estimates and warned housing conditions are deteriorating, the Motley Fool reports. Our take: the bond selloff just showed up somewhere people actually feel it — a mortgage repayment.
Those are your 5 minutes for tonight; see you at the same time tomorrow. - Miko Santos