MARKET AT 7
Good evening.Tonight is about the price of money. Bond yields hit levels not seen in decades, and that explains why Wall Street stalled, the ASX slid, and gold and bitcoin both lost ground despite a war scare still sitting in the background. Trump and Xi bought themselves two more months to sort out the rest.
In tonight's newsletter:
Bond selloff drags Wall Street, ASX to one-week low
US, China extend trade truce to January as Trump hosts Xi
Oil eases as US, Iran edge toward deal to reopen Hormuz
Bitcoin, gold slip as bond selloff hits risk assets
Netwealth shares dive on fresh First Guardian legal threat
Bond selloff drags Wall Street, ASX to one-week low
The US 10-year Treasury yield pushed to around 5.2% this week, its highest since 2007, and the 30-year climbed to roughly 5.5%, a level last seen in 2004, BBN Times reports.
Wall Street barely moved on Thursday: the Dow closed down 0.31% to 51,349.98, weighed by yield-sensitive names like Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar, while the S&P 500 finished essentially flat at 7,704.13 and the Nasdaq eked out a gain to 26,939.37 as Meta offset the Dow's drag.
The selloff crossed the Pacific on Friday: the ASX 200 fell 0.43% to 8,665.00, a one-week low, as Netwealth and Elsight led the fallers and CBA became the first bank to detail a call for a unanimous RBA hike on Tuesday, ABC News reports. Source: BBN Times, 24 Sep 2026 → · Source: ABC News, 25 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Bond markets have stopped waiting for the Fed to confirm another hike. They're already trading like the decision's made.
US, China extend trade truce to January as Trump hosts Xi
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that Washington and Beijing have agreed to extend their "Busan Agreement" trade truce from its original 10 November expiry to 10 January 2027, as Trump welcomed Xi Jinping to the White House for their first in-person summit since relations soured again this year, Al Jazeera and the AP report. Xi said China and the US "should be partners, not rivals," but made no direct mention of a trade deal.
Taiwan and AI also sat on the agenda, with Beijing opposing a $14 billion US arms package for Taipei and Washington floating a notification hotline for AI security risks. Source: Al Jazeera, 23 Sep 2026 → · Source: AP via Hawaii Tribune-Herald, 24 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Two months isn't a deal. It's a truce neither side can currently afford to break, which is a different thing.
Oil eases as US and Iran edge towards deal to reopen Hormuz
Brent crude eased about 1% to US$105.56 a barrel on Friday, pulling back after surging past $105 on Thursday, as US and Iranian negotiators reportedly work on a phased agreement that would let shipping traffic transit the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington easing its naval blockade, Yahoo Finance and ABC News report.
It follows Tuesday's offer from Tehran to reopen the strait within a week. Nothing has been signed yet, and Iran has floated de-escalation before without following through. Source: Yahoo Finance, 24 Sep 2026 → · Source: ABC News, 25 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
An agreement "being worked on" is not an agreement. Markets are pricing in a deal that doesn't exist yet.
Bitcoin and gold slip as bond sell-off hits risk assets
Bitcoin traded around US$83,900 on Thursday, down roughly 2% over 24 hours and extending this week's slide as the bond rout spread into crypto, CoinDesk pricing via Fortune shows.
Gold eased too, near US$4,293 an ounce, essentially flat after opening higher, with its year-on-year gain of 13.9% now the smallest margin in over a year as rising yields, a stronger US dollar and hawkish Fed rhetoric weigh against it, Yahoo Finance reports, even with Middle East tensions still simmering. Both figures move around the clock and may have shifted again by the time you read this. Source: Fortune, 24 Sep 2026 → · Source: Yahoo Finance, 24 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
When parking cash in a bond pays 5%, gold and bitcoin both lose their best argument for a while.
Netwealth shares dive on fresh First Guardian legal threat
Netwealth Group shares fell as much as 8.3% on Friday, the ASX 200's worst performer, after the platform confirmed it will defend a threatened class action over its role in the collapsed First Guardian Master Fund, ABC News and Business News Australia reports.
A Federal Court ruling in August found Netwealth breached the Corporations Act by failing to act in members' best interests, and roughly 1,300 members had $128.5 million invested in frozen First Guardian options, on top of the $100 million Netwealth already paid out under a compensation program completed in January.
No claim has actually been filed in court; solicitors are, in Netwealth's own words, still "weighing up legal action." Source: ABC News, 25 Sep 2026 → · Source: Business News Australia, 21 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
A finished compensation scheme was supposed to close this chapter. The market just priced in a sequel.
QUICK HITS
NZX 50 flat, but Vulcan Steel and Air NZ cap a stronger week. New Zealand's benchmark closed broadly flat Friday, up 0.7% for the week despite a 1.2% dip over the past month. Vulcan Steel gained 4% and Air New Zealand and Auckland Airport each rose 3%, interest.co.nz reports. The RBNZ's Official Cash Rate stays at 2.75%, unchanged since 2 September, with its next review not until 28 October. Our take: a quiet Friday capping a decent week. Nothing here needs a second look.
China-Vanuatu trade doubles to $419 million as pair sign new pact. Bilateral trade between China and Vanuatu hit US$419 million in 2025, more than double the year before, as the two countries signed a framework agreement this week to widen Vanuatu's access to Chinese markets, PACNEWS reports. China also chipped in US$100,000 in emergency aid after recent volcanic ashfall. Our take: a Pacific nation of 320,000 people just doubled trade with the world's second-biggest economy. That's a bigger shift than the dollar figure alone suggests.
Economist warns petrol could hit $2.70 a litre if Hormuz standoff drags on. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said Friday that Australian bowser prices could top $2.70 a litre if the Strait of Hormuz crisis stays unresolved and Brent climbs toward US$150 a barrel, ABC News reports. Our take: that's a worst case, not a forecast — but it's the number at the bowser if the diplomacy in story three falls through.
Those are your 5 minutes for tonight; see you at the same time tomorrow. - Miko Santos