MARKET AT 7
Good Morning.
All four major banks expect the Reserve Bank to lift the cash rate to 4.85% on Tuesday.
Brent oil settled at US$113.43 on Friday, up 13.6% for October, after a tanker strike near Hormuz.
The tax office warns of a fake email asking you to fill in a "crypto asset disclosure form"
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MARKET AT 7
RBA decides Tuesday as oil tops US$113 and a fake ATO email spreads
💹 Market Closed
Big banks expect RBA to lift cash rate to 4.85% on Tuesday
The Reserve Bank (RBA) decides on Tuesday at 2:00pm Adelaide time, and all four major banks expect a quarter-point rise in the cash rate, from 4.60% to 4.85%.
Annual inflation reached 4.3% in September, up from 4.0% in August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics says. The RBA watches trimmed mean (inflation with the wild swings cut out) more closely. It was 3.6%. Fuel is a key reason for the gap. It rose 9.4% in the month on world oil prices, and trimmed mean leaves it out.
Markets give a rise 79% to 86% odds, depending on the source. Westpac and CBA expect one hike, then a long hold, The Bull reports. If you have a variable home loan, your lender decides whether to pass it on.
Our take: A rise is mostly priced in. The surprise, if there is one, sits in what the RBA says about the next move.
Money Moves
Oil settles at US$113.43 after a tanker is hit near Hormuz. Brent's January contract settled at US$113.43 on Friday (the expiring December one closed at US$117.64), up 13.6% for October, FinanceFeeds reports, citing Reuters.
UKMTO, a shipping monitor, says explosive devices struck a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and OPEC+ (the oil exporters' group) agreed in principle on Sunday to hold December output, Reuters says. Source: FinanceFeeds, 01/11/2026 → · Source: Reuters via Business Standard, 01/11/2026 →
Gold falls below US$3,900 as hike talk lingers. Spot gold lost 3.62% on Friday, FinanceFeeds reports, and Commerzbank calls the drop exaggerated. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28/10 with two officials voting to hike. Our take: I have no strong view. One bad Friday proves little. Source: FinanceFeeds, 01/11/2026 →
Scam Watch
The Australian Taxation Office warns of fake emails saying you must complete a "crypto asset disclosure form", some threatening "financial charges and administrative penalties". The link leads to a fake ATO website that copies real tax rulings and collects personal and crypto wallet details. The ATO lists the alert as October 2026.
The giveaway is the pressure, with penalties and deadlines. The ATO says it never sends unsolicited emails or SMS links asking for personal details, logins or wallet details.
Don't click or reply. Please forward the email to [email protected], then delete it. If you have already entered your details, call the ATO on 1800 008 540 immediately.
Region Radar
New Zealand: The High Court confirmed a $1.425 million anti-money-laundering penalty on Co-operative Bank, interest.co.nz reports. It missed 7,845 alerts across 36,744 transactions, and no money laundering was alleged. Pacific: I found nothing verified inside the five-day window. Southeast Asia: Thailand's September exports rose 24.0% to US$38.4 billion, Thailand Business News reports.
Do this today
Open your banking app and find what your savings account pays. If the Reserve Bank lifts rates Tuesday, watch whether your bank passes any of it on to savers. It takes five minutes.
Today’s calendar
Nothing is confirmed for Monday. This week:
Tuesday 3/11, 2:00pm Adelaide time: RBA decision, with a press conference at 3:00pm.
Tuesday 3/11: US midterm elections, with results reaching Adelaide on Wednesday.
Thursday 5/11, 10:30pm: Bank of England decision.
I'm back tomorrow, a few hours before the RBA decides. — Miko Santos