Good evening. Twenty-four hours after the Reserve Bank's fourth hike of the year, Australia got the data that makes a fifth one look far less likely. Inflation undershot forecasts this morning, and markets reacted fast: shares up, the dollar down, bond yields easing. Oil also gave back more than half of Monday's spike, although Wall Street still closed lower overnight.

Australia's headline inflation ran at 4.0% in the year to August, up from 3.5% in July but under the 4.1% forecast, ABS figures show. Monthly prices rose just 0.4% against an expected 0.5%, and the RBA's preferred trimmed mean held at 3.6% for a third straight month.

The ASX 200 jumped 0.9% to close at 8,789, its best level in three weeks, ABC News reports, as markets slashed the odds of a November rate rise to just 20%, down from near-certain a week earlier. LendLease surged 11.3% and Charter Hall 6.4%. The Australian dollar fell to a two-month low of 69.76 US cents at the same time shares rallied. Source: ABC News, 30 Sep 2026 →

Shares up and the dollar down, on the exact same data, in the exact same hour. That's traders betting the RBA is done, whatever ANZ's holdouts still reckon.

Brent crude slipped to around $103 a barrel in Wednesday's Asian trade, clawing back more than half of Monday's spike to $108.50, as US and Iranian officials held indirect talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, HDFC Sky and Yahoo Finance report. Oil flows out of the Persian Gulf are reportedly back above 90% of pre-war levels.

Wall Street got no relief: the S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 7,670.84, the Dow 0.3% to 51,349.92 and the Nasdaq 0.1% to 26,797.54 on Tuesday, the AP reports, as the 10-year Treasury yield pushed toward 5.25%, its highest since 2007. Source: HDFC Sky, 30 Sep 2026 → · Source: Associated Press, 29 Sep 2026 →

Oil calming down was supposed to be good news for stocks. The bond market didn't let it be.

Spot gold traded at $4,198.60 an ounce early Wednesday, up 0.4% on the day, extending Tuesday's rebound, Kitco data shows. The move follows Tuesday's US figures showing job openings fell to 7.079 million in August and consumer confidence dropped to 81.9 in September, both below forecasts, trimming the odds traders assign to the Fed tightening again in late October. Gains stayed capped by the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.25% and a dollar index sitting at a two-month high. Source: Kitco, 30 Sep 2026 →

This is now a running theme, not a one-off. Gold rallies on rate-cut hope; yields cap it, three sessions straight.

New Zealand's benchmark index rose 0.2% on Wednesday, a modest bounce after Tuesday's 1.1% fall tied to the RBA's rate rise, interest.co.nz reports. SkyCity Entertainment led gainers, up 5%, with Air New Zealand up 3% and Precinct Properties and Vista Group each up 2%. NZX Ltd, the exchange's own listed operator, was the biggest faller, down 2%, alongside a2 Milk. Source: interest.co.nz, 30 Sep 2026 →

A bounce, not a rally. The index is still down 0.8% for the week even after today's gain.

The Asian Development Bank has cut its 2026 growth forecast for the Pacific region to 3.0%, down from the 3.3% it projected in July, pointing to a stronger-than-expected El Niño weighing on farm output across the subregion.

Papua New Guinea and Fiji, the two largest Pacific economies, were both downgraded: PNG's mining output is running below expectations and Fiji's industrial output has gone soft, the ADB's September Asian Development Outlook says. Solomon Islands faces weaker commodity output and slower capital spending, while the bank also flagged Middle East-linked cost pressures for the Marshall Islands and Micronesia, and an ongoing electricity crisis in Tuvalu. Source: Asian Development Bank, Sep 2026 →

Markets obsess over every RBA and Fed twitch. A growth downgrade across six Pacific economies barely rates a press release, worth remembering when people call this region an afterthought.

Those are your 5 minutes for tonight; see you at the same time tomorrow. - Miko Santos