MARKET AT 7
Good evening. One number did more damage to markets today than any single headline: the US 10-year Treasury yield, now at its highest since 2007, with the 30-year not far behind at a 24-year high. That's enough to wipe $50 billion off the Australian market, push New Zealand shares lower, and spook Bitcoin mid-rally.
In tonight's newsletter:
ASX sinks 2% to three-month low as bond yields bite
Lynas buys Meteoric Resources in $968m rare-earths deal
Oil tumbles to $97 as Gulf shipping flows recover
Wall Street closes out September mixed despite cooler inflation
NZX 50 falls as bond markets keep groaning
ASX sinks 2% to three-month low as bond yields bite
The ASX 200 dropped 1.99%, or 174.9 points, to 8,614.4 on Thursday, its lowest close since mid-June, wiping more than $50 billion off the market, ABC News reports. Betashares chief economist David Bassanese blamed "deepening despondency" over Australia's outlook: falling house prices, higher rates and thin exposure to the AI rally driving gains overseas.
Liontown Resources was the day's worst performer, down 15.1% to 79 cents on concerns over rising Kathleen Valley expansion costs, while Data#3 jumped 13.7% to $12.63 on first-half profit running 40% ahead of last year. Australia's 10-year bond yield climbed to 5.40%. Source: ABC News, 1 Oct 2026 → · Source: ibtimes.com.au, 1 Oct 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Bassanese's "weak AI exposure" line stings because it's true. When Wall Street rallies on stocks the ASX barely has, this is what falls behind on the way down too.
Lynas buys Meteoric Resources in $968m rare-earths deal
Lynas Rare Earths will buy ASX-listed Meteoric Resources in an all-share deal worth roughly $968 million, a 68.4% premium on Meteoric's last close, Capital Brief and Mining.com.au report. The deal hands Lynas the Caldeira project in Brazil, which holds 802,000 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium oxide and 41,000 tonnes of dysprosium-terbium: the rare earths in EV motors and wind turbines. Lynas shares fell 8.6% to $12.64 on the news. Source: Capital Brief, 1 Oct 2026 → · Source: Mining.com.au, 1 Oct 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
An 8.6% share-price drop on deal day usually means investors, not geologists, doubt the price. The rocks might be exactly as good as Lynas says.
Oil tumbles to $97 as Gulf shipping flows recover
Brent crude fell to $97.39 a barrel Thursday, down from more than $103 a day earlier, as Kpler, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs all reported Persian Gulf oil exports climbing back toward pre-war levels, oilprice.com reports. Goldman put Middle East flows at 23.3 million barrels a day, matching the 2025 average, and said Saudi exports had more than doubled in September. That's a genuine shift from recent issues' Hormuz-cost framing: volumes, not just costs, are now easing the pressure. WTI slipped to near $89.70. Source: oilprice.com, 1 Oct 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Three banks saying the same thing about tanker traffic moved the price more than a month of Hormuz headlines did. Insurers are still pricing in risk the oil market has apparently stopped worrying about.
Wall Street closes out September mixed despite cooler inflation
The S&P 500 slipped 0.04%, the Dow fell 0.70% and the Nasdaq 0.37% on Wednesday, even after the Fed's preferred inflation gauge came in soft: the PCE price index rose 3.4% annually, below the 3.7% forecast, with core PCE at 3.0%, TheStreet reports. ADP data showed private payrolls up 90,000 in September, up from a revised 36,000 in August. None of it stopped the 10-year Treasury yield pushing to 5.29%, its highest since 2007, while the 30-year hit 5.65%, a level last seen in 2002. Spot gold held near $4,212 an ounce, up 0.7%, Kitco reports. Source: TheStreet, 1 Oct 2026 → · Source: Kitco, 30 Sep 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Good inflation news and bad bond news landed in the same afternoon. The bond market won.
NZX 50 falls as bond markets keep groaning
New Zealand's benchmark index slipped 23.88 points, or 0.2%, to 13,810.51 on Thursday, as the country's 10-year bond yield rose five basis points to 5.1%, the Bottom Line reports. Property and utility names led the falls — Napier Port Holdings down 2.7%, Meridian Energy down 1.6%, Infratil down 1.5% — while Fisher & Paykel Healthcare gained 1% and Port of Tauranga 1.6%. New Zealand's cash rate remains 2.75%, next reviewed 28 October. Source: The Bottom Line, 1 Oct 2026 →
OUR TAKE:
Same story as home, smaller scale: rates up, property down, everything else just along for the ride.
QUICK HITS
Ampol buys EV charging network Evie for $225 million. Petrol retailer Ampol will acquire Evie Networks, one of Australia's largest EV charging operators, for $225 million, The Driven reports, as the fuel giant hedges against the long-term shift away from petrol stations.
Our take: A petrol company buying chargers isn't hedging, it's admitting what the next decade of its own business looks like.
Bitcoin swings between $83,000 and $85,600 on one inflation report. Bitcoin spiked toward $85,650 after Wednesday's soft PCE print cut October Fed rate-hike odds from the high 60s to the mid 30s, before reversing to the low $83,000s as Treasury yields held near 5.3%, CryptoTimes and UseTheBitcoin report.
Our take: A $2,500 round trip on one data release is what "hasn't decided what it wants to be yet" looks like on a chart.
Nikkei jumps on chip stocks as Japan's Tankan survey falls short. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose more than 1%, led by chip-related shares, even as the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey put big manufacturer sentiment at +24, below the +25 forecast, Vantage Markets reports. Japan's 10-year bond yield has climbed to 3.1%, its highest in years.
Our take: A solid, unremarkable bounce in a week that's had plenty of drama everywhere else. Not every story needs a verdict.
Those are your 5 minutes for tonight; see you at the same time tomorrow. - Miko Santos