MARKET AT 7
Good evening. Tonight's biggest market mover isn't a trade, it's a filing. Anthropic asked investors to put a price on its business for the first time, and Wall Street and the ASX both liked the number before anyone outside the banks has read the fine print.
The real test lands Wednesday, when the Fed, New Zealand's central bank and Australia's own inflation data arrive inside a day of each other. Here's the night in four stories:
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MARKET AT 7
Fed, RBNZ rate calls loom as Anthropic files to go public
Anthropic's record IPO filing lifts ASX, Wall Street
Anthropic, the AI company behind the Claude chatbot, filed paperwork with US regulators on Monday to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, in what would be the largest IPO ever attempted. Investors are weighing a valuation of US$1.5 trillion to US$2 trillion, targeting a raise of at least US$100 billion, a sum that would beat SpaceX's US$85.7 billion raise as the biggest in history, Renaissance Capital's Matt Kennedy told the ABC, calling it "the most highly anticipated IPO of the year."
The numbers behind that price tag: revenue of US$16.3 billion in the first half of 2026, up from US$1.2 billion a year earlier, against an US$80.7 billion net loss over the same six months, mostly non-cash charges tied to its computing contracts, Reuters reports.
Markets took it as a green light. The Nasdaq rose 0.82% and the S&P 500 added 0.70% on Monday, with the Dow a step behind, up 0.28%, TheStreet reports. The ASX 200 followed through on Tuesday, closing up 0.46%, or 40.20 points, at 8,850.1, led by data-centre operator NEXTDC and miners, while Bank of Queensland and buy-now-pay-later player Block lagged, the ABC's live markets blog reports.
ALSO TODAY
Fed, RBNZ and Australia's own inflation test collide Wednesday. The Fed wraps a two-day meeting with markets pricing only around a 10% chance of a hike this time, a Capital.com analyst told TheStreet, while New Zealand's central bank decides the same day with traders pricing an 85% chance it lifts its cash rate from 2.75% to 3.00%. Australia's own number lands first: the September inflation read, due 11:30am Wednesday, against August's 4.0% annual pace and a Reserve Bank already at a 4.60% cash rate that meets again next Tuesday, Melbourne Cup Day.
Challenger rejects $7.8 billion takeover bid from its biggest shareholder. The insurer's board knocked back a non-binding $11.80-a-share offer from TAL Daiichi Life Australia, which already owns about a fifth of the company, saying the bid "is not at a level it could recommend to shareholders," Financial Standard and Kalkine report. Talks between the two companies continue, with no guarantee of a sweetened offer.
Oil extends its slide as Qatar pushes to cool US-Iran tensions. Brent crude eased to around US$114.73 a barrel on Tuesday, down almost 1% and off last week's six-month high of US$116.72, as Qatari mediators pushed ahead with weekend talks aimed at easing US-Iran tensions, TheStreet reports. Gold held near US$4,006.50 an ounce and bitcoin traded around US$79,722, both little changed.
Source: TheStreet, 26 Oct 2026 → · Source: RBA, 27 Oct 2026 → · Source: babypips (ABS data), 30 Sep 2026 → · Source: Financial Standard, 26 Oct 2026 → · Source: Kalkine, 26 Oct 2026 → · Source: ABC News, 27 Oct 2026 →
THE MARKET WRAP
OUR TAKE:
Nobody outside a handful of investment banks has actually read Anthropic's full prospectus yet, and the market rallied anyway. That's not a criticism, it's just how IPOs this size work: the headline number moves the price, and an $80 billion half-year loss gets read properly later. Keep that in mind for Wednesday, when three central-bank stories remind everyone that AI euphoria and interest-rate reality are separate conversations.
The RBA's position is trickiest, because it isn't even meeting this week. It's about to watch an inflation number land days before a decision it's genuinely split on, so Wednesday's data moves mortgage expectations more than the board meeting itself will. Hold near August's 4.0% and Cup Day stays a coin flip; surprise to the upside and the hike odds start looking conservative.
Challenger's rejected bid has nothing to do with any of that, which is exactly why it's worth noticing: a takeover fight running on its own timeline, unbothered by the Fed or an AI valuation debate, while most of the ASX just gets on with its week.
Those are your five minutes for tonight; see you at the same time tomorrow. — Miko Santos